The 2024-25 NBA season is creeping closer, and expectations are high for many teams in both conferences, even though only 16 will find themselves in the playoffs come April.
One way to truly see how a team is expected to perform in the upcoming season is by looking at their win total, and there are seven teams that oddsmakers believe will win at least 50 games.
Seven teams completed the feat last year, but only the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics did so in the Eastern Conference. Will that change this season?
Vegas certainly thinks so, as the Celtics, Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks all enter this October with win totals of 50.5 games or higher.
Betting on win totals is a fun way to add a little extra excitement to every game a team plays.
I have a few win totals I’m targeting this season, but I’ll share deeper breakdowns on those in my Peter’s Points column with all of my futures bets before the 2024-25 season starts.
For now, let’s examine each team’s win total projection and how oddsmakers may be viewing it in the market.
Boston Celtics Win Total Projection58.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
After winning 64 games last season, it’s not a surprise that Boston has the highest win total projection in the NBA this season. With Kristaps Porzingis set to miss the start of the season, bettors should be mindful that the OVER isn’t exactly a guarantee.
Oklahoma City Thunder Win Total Projection56.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
OKC made two major moves this offseason to land Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, and it is expected to be the class of the West. After a 57-win season in the 2023-24 campaign, it’s reasonable to expect OKC to go OVER this number this season.
New York Knicks Win Total Projection54.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
After trading for Karl-Anthony Towns, the Knicks went from 52.5 wins to 54.5 wins – but should bettors take the OVER?
New York won 50 games last season, but it doesn’t have as much depth after the Towns trade as it did with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.
Minnesota Timberwolves Win Total Projection52.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Minnesota also has a new look with Randle and DiVincenzo because of the Towns deal, but not it won’t be as reliant on rookies Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. Minnesota won 56 games last season and had the best defensive rating in the NBA.
Denver Nuggets Win Total Projection51.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Despite the Nuggets winning 57 games last season, oddsmakers are expecting Denver to take a step back with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope now in Orlando.
Philadelphia 76ers Win Total Projection51.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
How long will Joel Embiid stay healthy in the 2024-25 season? That will be the key to the Sixers’ win total after they went 16-27 without him last season.
Milwaukee Bucks Win Total Projection50.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
The Bucks failed to win 50 games last season and now Khris Middleton is still recovering from his dual ankle surgery. Not a great sign for a team to win 51 or more games in the 2024-25 campaign.
Dallas Mavericks Win Total Projection49.5 (Over -120/Under +100)
Fresh off of a 50-win season and an NBA Finals appearance, Dallas is expected to be right back in the same area after adding Klay Thompson in the offseason.
Cleveland Cavaliers Win Total Projection48.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
The Cavs could be a great regular season team after injuries knocked out Evan Mobley, Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell for significant time last season. Don’t be shocked if they push 50 wins in the 2024-25 campaign.
Orlando Magic Win Total Projection47.5 (Over -120/Under +100)
Orlando added KCP in the offseason, and it’s coming off a 47-win campaign. Can it leap into the top four in the East?
Memphis Grizzlies Win Total Projection47.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
If you’re betting the Grizzlies OVER, you’re betting on Ja Morant being back to his old self after a lost season due to suspension and injury. For what it’s worth, Memphis had back-to-back 50-win seasons before injuries derailed last season’s team.
Phoenix Suns Win Total Projection47.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
This number may be too low for the Suns, who won 49 games last season despite Bradley Beal missing a ton of time due to injury. Plus, Phoenix added some important veterans in Tyus Jones and Mason Plumlee on minimum deals to shore up its rotation.
Indiana Pacers Win Total Projection46.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Indiana won 47 games last season and is running back a similar team with Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam leading the way. Don’t be shocked if the Pacers push the Bucks and Cavs in their division this season.
Sacramento Kings Win Total Projection46.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
After adding DeMar DeRozan in a sign-and-trade, the Kings are all in to get back to the playoffs after falling short in the play-in tournament in the 2023-24 season. The Kings have at least 46 wins in each of the last two years.
New Orleans Pelicans Win Total Projection46.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
New Orleans traded for Dejounte Murray this offseason, but it doesn’t have a starting-caliber center on the roster. Brandon Ingram is also in a contract year, so there could be some more shakeup to come.
Miami Heat Win Total Projection44.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Health is going to be the key for a Miami team that won 46 games last season but lost Caleb Martin in the offseason.
Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro have missed far too much time in the last two seasons for the Heat to be trusted blindly in this market.
Golden State Warriors Win Total Projection44.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
Golden State could be an interesting team this season if young players like Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski make a leap. Remember, Golden State was solid when Draymond Green wasn’t suspended, going 33-22 when he played last season.
Houston Rockets Win Total Projection43.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
This number may be a little high for a Houston team that didn’t make any major offseason moves and still was short of the play-in tournament in the 2023-24 season.
Los Angeles Lakers Win Total Projection43.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
A down year for LeBron James and the Lakers? At this number, Los Angeles is projected to finish 10th or 11th in the West…
Los Angeles Clippers Win Total Projection39.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Kawhi Leonard’s health will ultimately determine the Clippers’ ceiling, and given his injury history, it’s hard to take an OVER with the risk that he misses a large chunk of the season.
San Antonio Spurs Win Total Projection36.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
From 22 to 36.5? If you’re betting the Spurs' OVER, you’re betting on a major Victor Wembanyama leap and the veteran leadership of Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes. With Devin Vassell set to miss the start of the season, I’m not as bullish on the Spurs at this number.
Atlanta Hawks Win Total Projection36.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Atlanta has no reason to tank since the Spurs own its pick, and it does have 36 or more wins each of the last four seasons.
Toronto Raptors Win Total Projection29.5 (Over -120/Under +100)
Could the Toronto Raptors be undervalued?
Despite an injury to Scottie Barnes and two massive midseason trades, the Raptors still won 25 games last season. With a full summer to mesh with this core, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Toronto in the play-in tournament mix.
Charlotte Hornets Win Total Projection30.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
I’m not nearly as high on the Hornets as the market is this year, as LaMelo Ball simply hasn’t been healthy enough to trust this young team as a play-in tournament contender.
Utah Jazz Win Total Projection29.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
Utah always seems to be over. 500 at home, which gives it a pretty good floor when it comes to win total bets. The Jazz haven’t won fewer than 21 games at home since the 2014-15 season.
Chicago Bulls Win Total Projection27.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
The Bulls seem to have no direction, but they have Josh Giddey, Zach LaVine and Coby White who could put up numbers on a bad team. Chicago won 39 games last season even though LaVine was injured for most of it.
Detroit Pistons Win Total Projection25.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Detroit won just 14 games last season. No matter how you feel about some of the offseason moves it made, this is a major leap to win 26 or more to hit the OVER.
Portland Trail Blazers Win Total Projection22.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
Portland is actually intriguing after adding Deni Avdija and drafting Donovan Clingan. It should still be a team in the hunt for the No. 1 pick, but Portland did win 21 games a season ago.
Washington Wizards Win Total Projection20.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
Marginal improvement for the Wizards?
If Washington really takes a long look at youngsters like Bub Carrington and Alex Sarr, this could be a surefire under.
Brooklyn Nets Win Total Projection19.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Brooklyn may have a fire sale at the deadline, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see it fall short of 20 wins – two teams (Detroit and Washington) did so last season.
