Going in to April, Chelsea have a ten point lead at the top of the English Premier League. Barring a catastrophic collapse they will win the title and give Antonio Conte his first trophy in English football.
This does not, however, mean that interest at the top of the table going in to the final stages of the season is at an end. The battle for Champions League qualification is very much still on going and could very well go to the final weekend of the season.
At the start of the campaign the media narrative largely surrounded the appointment of Pep Guardiola as the coach of Manchester City, with questions surrounding whether he would continue his successful career in England. These questions seemed largely answered in the opening weeks of the season as City swept all before them in impressive style. Although as the season wore on, the age and quality of the squad was called in to question as results suffered.
In recent weeks the form of City has stabilised, though they were eliminated in the last 16 of the Champions League by AS Monaco. Now Guardiola needs to refocus his squad for the final stretch of the season. Failure to win the league in his first season is excusable but failure to qualify for the Champions League would be catastrophic.
The story of the season so far for Arsenal could well mirror that of Manchester City apart from the early season optimism and with a Champions League exit to Bayern Munich calling in to question the entire ethos of the club.
Arsene Wenger is under considerable pressure to walk away at the end of the season and the continuation of his contract could hinge on Arsenal securing a top four finish. Having made qualification for the Champions League a fine art over the last decade, Wenger will be looking to extract the very best from his squad to save his job…
Manchester City need to dominate the final third
At the start of the season, when City were at their enthralling best, the key to their attacking game was the role given to David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne in the centre of the pitch. Playing nominally as central midfielders who would take the number 8 role in the side they found themselves acting as almost a double pivot in the number 10 role.
By operating in the centre of the final third in this way, Silva and De Bruyne were able to dominate the opposition and set the tempo of the game in City’s favour.
Arsenal tried to fix their midfield issues in the summer with the signing of the Swiss international Granit Xhaka but the midfielder has yet to impress as the holding midfielder for the North London club.
If City are able to dominate the central space between the Arsenal midfield and defensive lines with the likes of Silva and De Bruyne controlling the tempo of the game, then they should have enough attacking firepower to see off the challenge of Arsenal.
With Sergio Aguero to pin the central defenders back and the pace of Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane in wide areas City are a fearsome prospect for any opposition team.
Arsenal need to attack the City fullbacks
One of the biggest issues that Pep Guardiola has found with his City squad is the lack of quality in the fullback areas. The likes of Pablo Zabaleta, Bacary Sagna and Gael Clichy were once passable at the top level but as they have aged their qualities have dropped off significantly.
Now the lack of quality in the wide defensive areas is one of the biggest weaknesses of this City side.
It may be time for Arsene Wenger to revert to using the Chilean international forward Alexis Sanchez in a wide role to take advantage of this weakness. With Danny Welbeck and Oliver Giroud able to play as the lone striker, Wenger could afford to move Sanchez to the left where his pace and energy could be at its most effective.
The pace of Theo Walcott on the right could have a destabilising effect on the City defensive structure that would prevent City from being able to transition quickly from the defensive to the attacking phase.
If Arsenal are able to overload the wide areas with support from the fullbacks for Sanchez and Walcott then we could also see the attacking strength of City lessened, as Sane and Sterling will have to track back and support the defensive phase far more than they would otherwise be comfortable with.
The question for Arsenal, however, will be whether to play the mercurial German international Mesut Ozil in the number ten position when an extra central midfielder could provide more strength to the team structure. Playing Ozil wide is not a realistic option given his lack of pace and desire to work back in the defensive phase.
Conclusion
The lack of European involvement for these clubs should see them start to adjust and plan for next season even at this early stage.
Expect to see Guardiola and City look to dominate in the attacking phase even more as the season draws to an end. The pace in the wide areas should be coupled with the presence of Silva and De Bruyne in the centre or the half spaces and opposition defences will be hard pushed to prevent them from breaking through.
Arsenal on the other hand have to prove to the watching fanbase that the players are still behind their coach and that they are capable of consistently playing the kind of football that brought the club so many admirers over the course of Wengers tenure.
Three points in this match will go a long way to securing Champions League qualification. The pressure is on.
