With just seven weeks remaining in the 2025 NFL regular season, the playoff picture is beginning to take shape. The top teams in the league will look to clinch their divisions and go after the No. 1 seed, while teams on the bubble will try to claim a wild-card berth.
As the back end of the season approaches, it’s time to look at the remaining strength of schedule, or combined win percentage of their upcoming opponents for each playoff contender and see how this will impact their postseason aspirations.
No teams have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs to this point, but for our purposes, we will be looking at the top-10 seeded teams in each conference.
Here is where every AFC playoff contender ranks based on remaining strength of schedule, ranked from most to least difficult.
1. Colts (.577, 4th toughest in NFL)Current standing: 8-2, No. 3 seedRemaining opponents: at Chiefs, Texans, at Jaguars, at Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, Texans
The Colts have emerged as one of the top teams in the NFL through 11 weeks, but they will be challenged as they face the most difficult schedule among AFC teams over the final seven weeks. Every opponent remaining is .500 or better. So far this season, the Colts are 2-2 in games against teams that are currently .500 or better.
The Colts will face both the Texans and Jaguars twice over this span, which will be crucial as they try to win their division for the first time since 2014. Indianapolis has a two-game lead in the AFC South over the Jaguars, but Jacksonville and Houston could close in on this lead if the Colts can’t win or split those divisional series.
2. Texans (.563, 5th toughest)Current standing: 5-5, No. 8 seedRemaining opponents: Bills, at Colts, at Chiefs, Cardinals, Raiders, at Chargers, Colts
After finishing first in their division each of the last two years, the Texans dealt with a tough schedule to start the year, and that continues through the remainder of the season. The Texans do have winnable games against the Cardinals and Raiders, but otherwise, they only play opponents that are .500 or better.
The Texans will have a shot to go after the AFC South crown as they face the Colts twice over the remaining month and a half in the season, but their best bet might be to go after a wild-card spot. Their games against the Bills, Chiefs and Chargers will be especially pivotal if they want to win tiebreakers and move up to the 5-7 seeds.
3. Chargers (.549, 8th toughest)Current standing: 7-4, No. 6 seedRemaining opponents: Bye, Raiders, Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys, Texans, at Broncos
The Chargers got walloped by the Jaguars on Sunday, and will look to regroup over their bye. When they return to play, they will have particularly important matchups against the Chiefs, Texans and Broncos. Los Angeles, who beat the Broncos earlier this season, does remain in contention for the AFC West crown—though it will be hard to overtake the Broncos.
T-4. Chiefs (.507, 12th toughest)Current standing: 5-5, No. 9 seedRemaining opponents: Colts, at Cowboys, Texans, Chargers, at Titans, Broncos, at Raiders
At 5-5, the Chiefs find themselves in unfamiliar territory in the Patrick Mahomes era. After losing to the Broncos on Sunday, Kansas City is not just on the verge of losing the division for the first time in nearly a decade, but missing out on the playoffs altogether.
The Chiefs have made the AFC championship game in every year since Mahomes became the starter, but there is a real possibility they don’t make the postseason, especially with their schedule ahead. They are still in the thick of the wildcard race, but it doesn't help their cause that the Bills, Chargers and Jaguars all have tiebreakers against them. They’ll have slim margin for error going forward.
T-4. Steelers (.507, 12 toughest)Current standing: 6-4, No. 4 seedRemaining opponents: at Bears, Bills, at Ravens, Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns, Ravens
The Steelers stand atop the AFC North, but with the Ravens chipping at their lead week by week, their lead is far from safe. The Steelers have a path to the playoffs through either winning the division or nabbing a wild-card spot, but winning the AFC North remains the ideal route. This will make their two games against the Ravens incredibly important, and must-win matchups for the Steelers.
6. Ravens (.500, 16th toughest)Current standing: 5-5, No. 10 seedRemaining opponents: Jets, Bengals, Steelers, at Bengals, Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers
After shockingly starting the season 1-5, the Ravens have come alive and put themselves back in the playoff race. Baltimore is riding a four-game win streak, and have a relatively favorable schedule that could easily help them snatch the division lead from the Steelers.
Like for the Steelers, the Ravens’ two games against Pittsburgh are the most important ones left on their schedule. Baltimore has momentum heading down the stretch of the season, and could easily gain more as they take on the Jets and Bengals over the next two weeks.
7. Bills (.493, 18th toughest)Current standing: 7-3, No. 5 seedRemaining opponents: at Texans, at Steelers, Bengals, at Patriots, at Browns, Eagles, Jets
The Bills have controlled the AFC East over the last five years, but they are on track to be a wild-card team this postseason. The Patriots have emerged as contenders under Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, and have a game and a half lead over Buffalo to take the AFC East. For the Bills to have a real shot at taking the division lead back, they’ll need to beat the Patriots in New England next month. Otherwise, the Bills will likely have to settle for being a wild-card team, and go on the road in the playoffs in their last year playing in Highmark Stadium.
8. Broncos (.476, 23rd toughest)Current standing: 9-2, No. 1 seedRemaining opponents: Bye, at Commanders, at Raiders, Packers, Jaguars, at Chiefs, Chargers
With a win over the Chiefs on Sunday, the Broncos have cemented themselves as the clear favorites to win the AFC West. The Chargers can still challenge for the crown, but Denver could also wrap up the division before they face the Chargers or Chiefs again at the end of the season, which would be ideal. With an easier schedule, the Broncos have not just put themselves in position not just to win the West, but clinch the No. 1 seed.
9. Jaguars (.451, 28th toughest)Current standing: 6-4, No. 7 seedRemaining opponents: at Cardinals, at Titans, Colts, Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, Titans
The Jaguars hold the seventh seed and the final spot in the AFC playoffs at the moment, but fortunately for them, they have one of the easiest schedules remaining with two games against the Titans as well as matchups vs. the Jets and Cardinals. The Jaguars also hold tiebreakers over the Chargers and Chiefs, another advantage down the stretch.
If Jacksonville takes care of business, they are in good position to make the postseason in their first year under Liam Coen, which would be a massive accomplishment. The Jaguars also have the opportunity to take the AFC South if they sweep the Colts and/or Indianapolis falters over the remainder of their tough schedule.
10. Patriots (.371, 31st toughest)Current standing: 9-2, No. 2 seedRemaining opponents: at Bengals, Giants, Bye, Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, Dolphins
After defeating the Bills earlier this season, the Patriots remain in control of their own fate going forward. It’ll help that they have the NFL’s second-easiest remaining schedule as they look to take back the AFC East.
The Patriots, currently riding an eight-game winning streak, lead the Bills in the division, and would likely seal that with a win at home over Buffalo next month. Their only challenging games remaining on paper are versus the Bills and at Baltimore. With the Patriots’ current schedule, they have a good shot at not just winning the division, but potentially winning the No. 1 seed and earning a first-round bye.
